学习"dead cat bounce"。。。 认清澳元。。。

阿得莱德

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/continue-dead-cat-bounce-064709947.html
这个文章读起来很有意思，有兴趣的读一下吧~~

The expression "dead cat bounce" has been around for a while.

It's been around since at least the mid-1980s when foreign exchange dealers applied it to the Australian dollar.
In a little over two and a half years from when it was floated in 1983 until July 1986, the Aussie fell from around 92 US cents, about where it is now, to 57 cents.

Undermined by falling export commodity prices and fickle investor confidence, that slide proceeded at an average rate of over one US cent a month.

And traders learnt that it was not safe to bet that occasional rallies would be either large or long-lasting.
So it was often compared to a deceased feline, on the basis that if you throw a dead cat off a tall building it will bounce.
But it just won't bounce very high before falling back again.
It's not just the Aussie - the term applies to any market that's enjoying a rally that's thought unlikely to be either big or durable.
But the Aussie is in the spotlight at the moment.
So far this year's it's fallen by an average of two US cents a month.
And there have been a few dead cat bounces along the way, especially since the slide steepened in mid-April.
Since then, there have been bounces from 97.1 to 98.4, from 96.1 to 97.7, from 95.3 to 97.9 and from 93.2 to 96.7.
Most times, the low has been lower than the one before, with the following bounce falling short of the previous one.
The latest drop brought the Aussie to 91.4 US cents, but the bounce stalled in classic dead-cat fashion at 93.
This cascade was long overdue.
The factors leading to it have been either with us, or clearly imminent, for quite a while.
Commodity prices, historically linked to the ups and downs of the Aussie dollar, topped out in mid-2011.
They're still falling.
The currency's failure to follow the usual script and head downward has been the subject of a string of comments from perplexed Reserve Bank of Australia officials since early last year.
The Australian economy is undershooting its sustainable growth rate and has been, on average, since the global crisis in 2008.
That means interest rates will remain low for a while yet as the RBA tries to avoid pushing growth even further below "trend".
And the US economy is building momentum, meaning the ultra-low interest rate policy will inevitably be wound back, as the Federal Reserve clearly signalled last week.
With the upside beckoning for rates in the US, and a soft economy holding Australian rates down, the interest rate gap that's supported the Aussie is more likely than not to narrow, chipping away at that source of support.
There's still demand for the currency from investors looking for high-quality bonds.
And every dip will attract bargain-hunters into the share market.
So the Aussie is very unlikely to go into what commentators like to call "free fall".
But with economic fundamentals now working against the Australian dollar, any bounces are likely to be no bigger than what might be expected from a dead cat hitting the pavement.

澳币跌了！买不买呢？
http://www.adelaidebbs.com/bbs/f ... &fromuid=195172

降息了！还会再降息么？
http://www.adelaidebbs.com/bbs/f ... &fromuid=195172

反正人民币是肯定要跌了

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